NEW YORK, Nov 20 â After another chaotic week of mass staff departures and policy reversals, Twitterâs future seems highly uncertain, with users â and everybody else â increasingly asking one question: What would a world without the so-called bird app even look like?
With about 237 million daily visitors at the last count in late June, Twitterâs user base is still smaller than Facebookâs nearly two billion, TikTokâs one billion plus and even Snapchatâs 363 million.
But in Twitterâs 15 years of existence, the platform has become the predominant communication channel for political and government leaders, businesses, brands celebrities and news media.
Some, like New York entrepreneur Steve Cohn, are convinced the Twitterverse is only an artificial microcosm of the real world, with limited actual importance.
Twitter is ânot âessentialâ in any way,â Cohn declared â from his own Twitter account. âThe world works just fine without Twitter.â
Few people actually tweet, he went on. âAlmost all tweets come from (the) 1 per cent. Most normals never log into Twitter.â
But for others, including Karen North, a professor at the University of Southern Californiaâs Annenberg School for Communication and Journalism, the site is indispensable for bringing light to little-known conversations.
âMost of the time, people without prominence are not heard,â she said. But on Twitter, âthereâs the opportunity to announce things.â
In situations of conflict, social movements or crackdowns, âTwitter I think has become the central platform for being able to disseminate the truth and the ground reality,â Charles Lister, senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington, told AFP.
Like most other social networks, Twitter is also used to spread propaganda and misinformation, and the company has developed moderation tools to try to limit the worst of it.
But their ability to keep up with the demands of such a task has been thrown into question after more than two-thirds of those teams have left since Elon Muskâs controversial takeover.
A 2018 study found that false information circulates faster than posts that have been fact-checked.
âThatâs an unrealistic expectation to imagine a platform where misinformation and disinformation is impossible,â Lister cautioned.
But âto see information, good and bad, vanish,â with the potential disappearance of Twitter, âis by definition a bad thing,â Lister said.
âAutocrats and anyone who doesnât want information widely shared, would potentially benefit from Twitter being gone,â added Mark Hass, a professor at Arizona State University (ASU).
âPublic squareâ
A Twitter fail could have devastating effects on journalism, experts say.
âTwitter… is really not a social network,â North explained. âItâs a network of news and information.â
âItâs the place, the core hub of where journalists go to get a heads up, or a story idea or a headline or a source or a quote,â she said.
With the reduction of the workforces and budgets in newsrooms, the resources just arenât there, even at the most well-funded news operations, âto go find sources out in the world,â North lamented.
Twitter, she said, is where much of that work can be done.
Another knock-on effect of a potential collapse of the platform, according to North, is that without Twitter, the worldâs rich and powerful stars and politicians will still be able to command the mediaâs attention, while those less in the spotlight will struggle for attention.
âWith Twitter, anybody can announce a story,â she said.
The site functions as a way to share information in real time.
âTwitter has been a vital source of information, networking, guidance, real-time updates, community mutual aid, & more during hurricanes, wildfires, wars, outbreaks, terrorist attacks, mass shootings… etc,â tweeted University of Maryland researcher Caroline Orr.
âItâs not something that can be replaced by any existing platforms.â
For now, the solution for a potential Twitter alternative is not obvious.
âFacebook is valuable, but I think itâs almost a bit old fashioned,â Lister said.
Smaller Twitter competitors are likely to syphon off users, including Mastodon, which has grown in popularity since Musk purchased Twitter.
âBut these will likely remain niche, with none of them becoming the public square that Twitter tries to create,â ASUâs Hass said.
He and North both listed Reddit as a possible substitute, though North said the forum-based network is limited by its fragmented and cluttered design that cannot replicate Twitterâs ease of use.
Could a replacement emerge? âOf course,â Lister added, but he noted such ingenuity takes enormous resources and significant time.
âYou canât just do it overnight.â â AFP