SEOUL, Jan 23 — K-pop’s once-unyielding growth is now showing signs of faltering, raising concerns about the lack of globally dominant groups to sustain the genre’s popularity after the hiatus of BTS and Blackpink.
The Korean Herald reported that industry experts suggest the surge in concerts by K-pop groups post-COVID-19 may have driven strong export and sales figures in recent years.
However, they warn against relying solely on these metrics as indicators of growth.
There is growing consensus that the emergence of a new big-name group is critical to ensuring the long-term stability and success of the industry.
According to the report data from the Korea Customs Service released on Sunday revealed that K-pop’s physical album exports in 2023 reached US$294.8 million, reflecting a modest 0.55 percent increase from 2022.
Despite the rise in export figures, 2023 marked the first time in a decade that the growth rate had stalled.
K-pop album exports and sales, which had surged in tandem with the global hallyu (Korean Wave), experienced a notable slowdown last year.
Japan, one of K-pop’s top three export markets alongside the US and China, saw a significant decline in demand.
K-pop’s milestone of 100 million annual album sales, achieved in 2022, also failed to carry over into 2023.
According to the Circle Chart, operated by the Korea Music Content Association, physical album sales in 2023 totalled 98.9 million units—marking a 17.7 percent drop from 2022’s 120.2 million units.
The decline is largely attributed to the absence of major groups. With globally recognised acts like BTS and Blackpink on hiatus, album sales among next-generation groups have suffered.
Seventeen, the first K-pop group to surpass 16 million cumulative annual album sales in 2023, sold only 8.96 million albums last year.
Music critic Kim Yoon-ha told The Korean Herald : “First and foremost, the absence of major groups is undoubtedly the biggest factor. In the past, digital and physical album sales were largely driven by a few top-tier teams.
“Their exceptionally high sales during the pandemic period were abnormally inflated.”
Kim also highlighted the importance of diversifying album marketing strategies beyond traditional methods.
“Concert revenue is another significant factor, accounting for 50 to 60 percent of a K-pop agency’s total revenue. This trend is closely tied to merchandise sales, underscoring the need to analyse these aspects together when evaluating the industry’s performance,” she was reported saying.
Despite these challenges, Kim stressed the urgent need for a new major group to ensure K-pop’s continued growth.
“Within the K-pop scene, generational shifts traditionally occur in seven-year cycles, regardless of their global popularity.
“Industry players are likely aware of this pattern and have strategies in place to navigate these transitions,” Kim explained.
“It seems the industry missed the right timing for a generational shift. Some major groups have struggled to maintain momentum, which is why the focus this year should be on promoting boy groups to sustain K-pop’s growth,” she was quoted saying.
